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Thursday, November 26, 2009

The USDCHF is melting

The USDCHF is melting away with the dollar plunge this afternoon and begs where to now. Going back in time to 2008 when the price last broke 1.0000 (see chart above) the price had some consolidation lows at the 0.9926 to 0.9959 levels. Below that the next consolidation lows reached to 0.9868 to 0.9887. These are the targets we will be looking toward. The low going back as far as our chart history goes comes in at 0.9638 which is the low price reached on March 17th 2008. The low CLOSE comes in at the 0.9845. NOTE all these levels but the dollar bearishness is in full force. With Thanksgiving tomorrow and the rest of the world open, anything can happen.Consumer prices in four of Germany's largest federal states rose in year-on-year terms for the first time since the spring, according to data published Thursday. The figures appear to signal the end of a brief period in which the sharp drop in energy prices in the wake of the global financial crisis dragged the overall cost of living down, and they bear out widespread expectations that the rate of change in prices will stabilize above zero in the coming months. In October, prices rose 0.1% on the month and were unchanged from a year earlier. The states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Hesse in western Germany and Saxony and Brandenburg in eastern Germany reported an increase of between 0.2% and 0.4% in their consumer price indexes from November 2008. However, prices in all four states fell in monthly terms. Clothing, package tours and entertainment all registered declines that were only partly offset by increases in vehicle fuel and seasonal food prices. Preliminary data for the whole of Germany will be released after reports from the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg. Analysts polled ahead of time by Dow Jones Newswires, expect the overall German CPI to have fallen by 0.1% from October but be up 0.4% from November.

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